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Q. Lions vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 07:00

Q. Lions

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wynnum Wolves

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.3%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.0%1-16.3%1-24.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.9%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-110.6%4+-26.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 71.4% 1.40 -12.2%

Draw 18.4% 20.8% 4.80 -7.0%

Away win 18.9% 17.2% 5.80 +5.8%

Over 2.5 66.3% 80.0% 1.25 -17.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 58.8% 1.70 -17.9%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 61.9% 80.0% 1.25 -22.6%

Away O1.5 38.9% 40.0% 2.50 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Q. Lions2.7

Wynnum Wolves1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.33

WYNNUM WOLVES · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Q. Lions (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.2%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -7.0%

Wynnum Wolves (A) 18.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Q. Lions face Wynnum Wolves in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Q. Lions a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Wynnum Wolves 19%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Q. Lions and 1.3 for Wynnum Wolves (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Q. Lions are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.86 for Wynnum Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 6-2.

Q. Lions vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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