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Magic United vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:30

Magic United

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane City

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.2%0-24.0%0-34.7%0-4+10.6%1 1-00.9%1-13.4%1-26.0%1-37.1%1-4+16.0%2 2-00.7%2-12.5%2-24.5%2-35.4%2-4+12.0%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.3%3-32.7%3-4+6.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 5.00 -5.7%

Draw 17.0% 4.60 -13.1%

Away win 64.9% 1.48 -4.0%

Over 2.5 75.6% 1.25 -5.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.65 -12.7%

BTTS 68.2% 1.30 -11.3%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 2.20 -4.3%

Away Over 1.5 82.4% 1.25 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob68.2%

A 65% / xG 1.5-3.6 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.1%

#2 1–4 6.4%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–3 5.4%

#5 2–4 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magic United1.5

Brisbane City3.6

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.75

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.17

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Magic United (H) 18.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -5.7%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.1%

Brisbane City (A) 64.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magic United face Brisbane City in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magic United a 18% chance, the draw 17% and Brisbane City 65%, so Brisbane City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Magic United and 3.6 for Brisbane City (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magic United are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.17 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Magic United vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions