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Wynnum Wolves vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 09:30

Wynnum Wolves

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rochedale

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.3%0-21.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-03.5%1-15.9%1-25.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.8%3-25.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-18.3%4+-27.1%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Draw 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Away win 27.1% 26.7% 3.75 +1.0%

Over 2.5 72.4% 74.1% 1.35 -2.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

BTTS 69.1% 74.1% 1.35 -6.7%

Home O1.5 61.5% 70.4% 1.42 -12.7%

Away O1.5 49.8% 47.6% 2.10 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.1%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wynnum Wolves2.6

Rochedale1.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WYNNUM WOLVES · PPG 1.38

ROCHEDALE · PPG 0.29

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Wynnum Wolves (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Rochedale (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wynnum Wolves face Rochedale in Australia - Queensland NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wynnum Wolves a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Rochedale 27%, so Wynnum Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Wynnum Wolves and 1.7 for Rochedale (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wynnum Wolves are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.29 for Rochedale. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Wynnum Wolves vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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