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Rochedale vs Gold C. Knights Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 09:30

Rochedale

PPG 1.13 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gold C. Knights

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.4%0-24.1%0-34.6%0-4+9.3%1 1-01.1%1-13.7%1-26.3%1-37.2%1-4+14.5%2 2-00.9%2-12.9%2-24.9%2-35.6%2-4+11.3%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.6%3-32.9%3-4+5.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.8%4+-21.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 4.33 -25.4%

Draw 17.8% 4.40 -13.0%

Away win 69.0% 1.55 +7.0%

Over 2.5 76.5% 1.30 -0.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.80 -4.8%

BTTS 68.6% 1.36 -6.7%

Home Over 1.5 48.1% 2.25 +8.2%

Away Over 1.5 82.4% 1.33 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob68.6%

A 69% / xG 1.6-3.4 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.2%

#2 1–2 6.3%

#3 1–4 6.1%

#4 2–3 5.6%

#5 2–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale1.6

Gold C. Knights3.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.13

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 1.63

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 13.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -25.4%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.0%

Gold C. Knights (A) 69.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Gold C. Knights in Australia - Queensland NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Gold C. Knights 69%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rochedale and 3.4 for Gold C. Knights (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.63 for Gold C. Knights. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Rochedale vs Gold C. Knights Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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