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Eastern Suburbs vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 09:00

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Olympic FC

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.8%0-21.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.1%1-15.2%1-24.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.4%2-17.4%2-26.2%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-17.0%3-25.9%3-33.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-19.8%4+-28.3%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 57.1% 1.75 -1.5%

Draw 20.2% 24.4% 4.10 -10.3%

Away win 23.5% 28.2% 3.55 -10.0%

Over 2.5 72.2% 75.2% 1.33 -4.0%

Over 3.5 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

BTTS 68.6% 74.1% 1.35 -7.4%

Home O1.5 76.1% 70.4% 1.42 +8.1%

Away O1.5 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.6%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.2%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Suburbs2.8

Olympic FC1.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.86

OLYMPIC FC · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=56.3%

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Suburbs (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -1.5%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.3%

Olympic FC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Suburbs face Olympic FC in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Suburbs a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Olympic FC 24%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Eastern Suburbs and 1.7 for Olympic FC (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Suburbs are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Olympic FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Eastern Suburbs vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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