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Q. Lions vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 09:30

Q. Lions

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Olympic FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.9%1-12.8%1-22.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.7%2-15.4%2-23.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-16.9%3-25.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-118.1%4+-213.1%4+-36.4%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 71.4% 1.40 -5.9%

Draw 17.4% 20.8% 4.80 -9.9%

Away win 15.5% 17.2% 5.80 -6.1%

Over 2.5 81.7% 80.0% 1.25 +2.1%

Over 3.5 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

BTTS 69.1% 72.5% 1.38 -4.6%

Home O1.5 77.8% 80.0% 1.25 -2.8%

Away O1.5 44.9% 40.0% 2.50 +12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob69.1%

H 67% / xG 3.8-1.4 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.9%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 5.4%

#4 5–1 5.1%

#5 3–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Q. Lions3.8

Olympic FC1.4

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.0%

Form & verdict PPG

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.43

OLYMPIC FC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Q. Lions (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -5.9%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -9.9%

Olympic FC (A) 15.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Q. Lions face Olympic FC in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Q. Lions a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Olympic FC 16%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Q. Lions and 1.4 for Olympic FC (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Q. Lions are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Olympic FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Q. Lions vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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