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Gold C. Utd vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:00

Gold C. Utd

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.8%0-25.8%0-35.8%0-4+9.4%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.8%1-37.8%1-4+12.6%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.2%2-35.3%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.3%3-32.4%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 6.00 -12.1%

Draw 18.0% 5.00 -6.0%

Away win 68.8% 1.36 -6.4%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.33 -4.1%

Over 3.5 48.6% 1.85 -10.1%

BTTS 63.5% 1.50 -4.8%

Home Over 1.5 43.1% 2.90 +25.0%

Away Over 1.5 73.0% 1.28 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 19.4%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 69% / xG 1.3-3.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 1–4 6.0%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 0–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Utd1.3

Moreton City E.3.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. UTD · PPG 0.60

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Utd (H) 13.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -12.1%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.0%

Moreton City E. (A) 68.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Utd face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Utd a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Moreton City E. 69%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gold C. Utd and 3.0 for Moreton City E. (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Utd are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.43 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +25.0%.

Gold C. Utd vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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