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Gold C. Utd vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:00

Gold C. Utd

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.8%0-25.8%0-35.8%0-4+9.4%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.8%1-37.8%1-4+12.6%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.2%2-35.3%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.3%3-32.4%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 16.7% 6.00 -12.1%

Draw 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

Away win 68.8% 73.5% 1.36 -6.4%

Over 2.5 72.1% 75.2% 1.33 -4.1%

Over 3.5 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 43.1% 34.5% 2.90 +25.0%

Away O1.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 69% / xG 1.3-3.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 1–4 6.0%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 0–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Utd1.3

Moreton City E.3.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. UTD · PPG 0.60

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Utd (H) 13.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -12.1%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.0%

Moreton City E. (A) 68.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Utd face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Utd a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Moreton City E. 69%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gold C. Utd and 3.0 for Moreton City E. (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Utd are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.43 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Gold C. Utd vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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