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Eastern Suburbs vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 09:00

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Peninsula

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.3%0-25.7%0-34.1%0-4+3.6%1 1-03.8%1-18.2%1-28.8%1-36.3%1-4+5.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.4%2-26.9%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.3%3-23.6%3-32.6%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.7%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Over 2.5 67.1% 73.5% 1.36 -8.7%

Over 3.5 43.9% 51.8% 1.93 -15.3%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 43.8% 52.6% 1.90 -16.8%

Away O1.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.3%

A 49% / xG 1.6-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Suburbs1.6

Peninsula2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.63

PENINSULA · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Suburbs (H) 29.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Peninsula (A) 49.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Suburbs face Peninsula in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Suburbs a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Peninsula 49%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Eastern Suburbs and 2.2 for Peninsula (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Suburbs are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.29 for Peninsula. This match finished 1-3.

Eastern Suburbs vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions