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Gold C. Knights vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 06:15

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.2%0-22.3%0-31.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-02.5%1-15.3%1-25.7%1-34.1%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.0%2-16.5%2-27.0%2-35.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.4%3-15.3%3-25.7%3-34.1%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-15.7%4+-26.2%4+-34.4%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Draw 21.3% 25.0% 4.00 -8.9%

Away win 34.2% 44.4% 2.25 -23.1%

Over 2.5 72.4% 76.9% 1.30 -5.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 56.5% 1.77 -5.8%

BTTS 69.1% 78.1% 1.28 -11.6%

Home O1.5 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Away O1.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.1%

H 44% / xG 2.4-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1✓ 6.5%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.4

Moreton City E.2.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.60

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.63

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=44.5%

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.9%

Moreton City E. (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Moreton City E. 34%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Gold C. Knights and 2.2 for Moreton City E. (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.63 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Gold C. Knights vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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