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Eastern Suburbs vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 08:00

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brisbane City

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.5%0-22.3%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.2%1-16.0%1-25.7%1-33.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.9%2-17.4%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.2%3-16.0%3-25.7%3-33.6%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-16.6%4+-26.2%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 1.91 -4.9%

Draw 22.4% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 27.9% 3.00 -9.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 1.30 -12.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.77 -15.9%

BTTS 68.1% 1.28 -12.8%

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Suburbs (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Brisbane City (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.1%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 3–1✓ 6.0%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Suburbs2.4

Brisbane City1.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.67

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.60) strong but model favors Home (P=49.8%)

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Suburbs face Brisbane City in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Suburbs a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Brisbane City 28%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Eastern Suburbs and 1.9 for Brisbane City (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Suburbs are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.60 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Eastern Suburbs vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions