Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Western Knights vs Bayswater

Western Knights vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.2%0-24.6%0-33.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-03.3%1-17.4%1-28.1%1-36.0%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.5%2-27.1%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.7%3-13.8%3-24.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.5%4+-22.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 3.30 +1.6%

Draw 21.2% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 48.0% 1.85 -11.2%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.44 -5.1%

Over 3.5 47.5% 2.00 -5.0%

BTTS 65.7% 1.40 -8.0%

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Bayswater (A) 48.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.7%

A 48% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights1.8

Bayswater2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 2.17

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 31% chance, the draw 21% and Bayswater 48%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Western Knights and 2.2 for Bayswater (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.71 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 4-4.

Western Knights vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions