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Western Knights vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.2%0-24.6%0-33.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-03.3%1-17.4%1-28.1%1-36.0%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.5%2-27.1%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.7%3-13.8%3-24.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.5%4+-22.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Over 2.5 65.9% 69.4% 1.44 -5.1%

Over 3.5 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

BTTS 65.7% 71.4% 1.40 -8.0%

Home O1.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Away O1.5 65.9% 63.7% 1.57 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.7%

A 48% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights1.8

Bayswater2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 2.17

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Bayswater (A) 48.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 31% chance, the draw 21% and Bayswater 48%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Western Knights and 2.2 for Bayswater (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.71 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 4-4.

Western Knights vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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