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Western Knights vs Perth Glory II Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth Glory II

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.3%1-16.1%1-25.6%1-33.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-17.0%4+-26.4%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 52.4% 1.91 -2.8%

Draw 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

Away win 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.7%

Over 2.5 72.7% 76.9% 1.30 -5.5%

Over 3.5 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%

BTTS 70.3% 76.9% 1.30 -8.6%

Home O1.5 63.8% 69.4% 1.44 -8.1%

Away O1.5 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.3%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights2.5

Perth Glory II1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 1.89

PERTH GLORY II · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -2.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.3%

Perth Glory II (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Perth Glory II in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Perth Glory II 28%, so Western Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Western Knights and 1.8 for Perth Glory II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.67 for Perth Glory II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.8%.

Western Knights vs Perth Glory II Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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