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Perth vs Bayswater City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Perth

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bayswater City

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.7%0-24.0%0-32.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.3%1-17.1%1-27.6%1-35.5%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.7%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.6%3-33.3%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.1%4+-23.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 41.7% 2.40 -12.9%

Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -13.1%

Away win 42.0% 42.0% 2.38 -0.0%

Over 2.5 70.7% 76.9% 1.30 -8.1%

Over 3.5 49.7% 57.8% 1.73 -14.0%

BTTS 69.5% 77.5% 1.29 -10.3%

Home O1.5 55.7% 61.7% 1.62 -9.8%

Away O1.5 54.5% 61.7% 1.62 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.5%

A 42% / xG 1.9-2.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth1.9

Bayswater City2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH · PPG 1.62

BAYSWATER CITY · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Perth (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -12.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.1%

Bayswater City (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth face Bayswater City in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Bayswater City 42%, so Bayswater City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Perth and 2.2 for Bayswater City (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.56 for Bayswater City.

Perth vs Bayswater City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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