Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Balcatta vs Armadale

Balcatta vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Balcatta

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Armadale

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.5%0-23.8%0-32.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.1%1-16.8%1-27.4%1-35.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-16.7%2-27.3%2-35.3%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.7%3-33.4%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.3%4+-23.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

Draw 22.0% 26.3% 3.80 -9.8%

Away win 41.6% 48.8% 2.05 -14.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

Over 3.5 44.9% 51.8% 1.93 -13.3%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 54.1% 1.85 -0.8%

Away O1.5 56.2% 63.7% 1.57 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 2.0-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 1–2 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Balcatta2.0

Armadale2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BALCATTA · PPG 0.89

ARMADALE · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Balcatta (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.8%

Armadale (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Balcatta face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Balcatta a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Armadale 42%, so Armadale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Balcatta and 2.2 for Armadale (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Balcatta are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.70 for Armadale. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.8%.

Balcatta vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions