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Fremantle City vs Perth Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.7%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.6%1-17.9%1-26.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.4%3-15.8%3-25.0%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.0%4+-24.3%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 40.0% 2.50 +22.0%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 29.1% 44.4% 2.25 -20.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 54.6% 1.83 -18.0%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 60.1% 57.8% 1.73 +4.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City2.1

Perth1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.80

PERTH · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +22.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Perth (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Perth in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Perth 29%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fremantle City and 1.7 for Perth (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.80 for Perth. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Fremantle City vs Perth Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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