Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Bayswater City vs Sorrento

Bayswater City vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 06:00

Bayswater City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sorrento

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-17.5%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-19.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 16.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 57.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.4%

H 64% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater City2.5

Sorrento1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER CITY · PPG 2.50

SORRENTO · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 2.50 vs 1.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater City (H) 63.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater City face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater City a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Sorrento 16%, so Bayswater City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Bayswater City and 1.0 for Sorrento (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.62 for Sorrento. This match finished 7-1.

Bayswater City vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions