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Sorrento vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-112.7%0-210.2%0-35.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.4%2-15.5%2-24.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 51.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–2 10.2%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento0.9

Perth RedStar1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 0.70

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Perth RedStar (A) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Perth RedStar 52%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sorrento and 1.6 for Perth RedStar (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 2.00 for Perth RedStar.

Sorrento vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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