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Perth RedStar vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Balcatta

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.0%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.2%1-17.5%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-17.9%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.9%4+-24.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 65.4% 1.53 -10.3%

Draw 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Away win 20.2% 20.0% 5.00 +0.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 42.0% 2.38 +5.9%

BTTS 62.5% 62.5% 1.60 0.0%

Home O1.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.5%

H 59% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar2.5

Balcatta1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.10

BALCATTA · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

Balcatta (A) 20.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Balcatta 20%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Perth RedStar and 1.0 for Balcatta (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.67 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Perth RedStar vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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