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Sorrento vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Armadale

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.2%0-23.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.5%1-18.2%1-27.4%1-34.4%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.9%3-15.3%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.1%4+-23.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.2% — —

Draw 22.3% — —

Away win 32.5% — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — —

Over 3.5 42.7% — —

BTTS 63.4% — —

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Armadale (A) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento2.0

Armadale1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 0.88

ARMADALE · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.29)

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Armadale 33%, so Sorrento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sorrento and 1.8 for Armadale (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.29 for Armadale. This match finished 0-3.

Sorrento vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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