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Fremantle City vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dianella WE

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.2%0-22.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.1%1-15.7%1-25.4%1-33.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.9%2-17.3%2-26.8%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.2%3-25.8%3-33.6%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.3%4+-26.8%4+-34.3%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 2.40 +25.3%

Draw 20.8% 3.40 -17.6%

Away win 27.0% 2.45 -20.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.44 +4.5%

Over 3.5 53.2% 2.00 +6.4%

BTTS 68.4% 1.36 -7.0%

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +25.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.6%

Dianella WE (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.4%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City2.6

Dianella WE1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.57

DIANELLA WE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Dianella WE in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Dianella WE 27%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Fremantle City and 1.9 for Dianella WE (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Dianella WE. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +47.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Fremantle City vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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