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Valentine vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Edgeworth E.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.6%0-28.4%0-37.2%0-4+8.5%1 1-02.8%1-17.3%1-29.3%1-37.9%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-25.1%2-34.3%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.4% 16.7% 6.00 +6.2%

Draw 21.4% 22.2% 4.50 -2.2%

Away win 60.2% 73.5% 1.36 -18.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 42.4% 46.7% 2.14 -9.3%

BTTS 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Home O1.5 36.4% 29.2% 3.42 +24.5%

Away O1.5 68.6% 73.5% 1.36 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.7%

A 60% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 0–2 8.4%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.1

Edgeworth E.2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.33

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 18.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.2%

Edgeworth E. (A) 60.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Edgeworth E. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Edgeworth E. 60%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Valentine and 2.6 for Edgeworth E. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Edgeworth E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Valentine vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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