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Valentine vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Edgeworth E.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.6%0-28.4%0-37.2%0-4+8.5%1 1-02.8%1-17.3%1-29.3%1-37.9%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-25.1%2-34.3%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 18.4% 6.00 +6.2%

Draw 21.4% 4.50 -2.2%

Away win 60.2% 1.36 -18.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 42.4% 2.14 -9.3%

BTTS 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 18.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.2%

Edgeworth E. (A) 60.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 28.1%

Bet Hit 85%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.7%

A 60% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 0–2 8.4%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.1

Edgeworth E.2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.33

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Edgeworth E. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Edgeworth E. 60%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Valentine and 2.6 for Edgeworth E. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Edgeworth E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Valentine vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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