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Cooks Hill Utd vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 10:00

Cooks Hill Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valentine

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.7%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.6%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.8%3-16.7%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.5%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 45.5% 2.20 +19.0%

Draw 22.1% 28.6% 3.50 -13.6%

Away win 23.8% 37.0% 2.70 -21.4%

Over 2.5 62.3% 66.7% 1.50 -6.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% 48.3% 2.07 -17.6%

BTTS 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Home O1.5 58.8% 57.1% 1.75 +2.9%

Away O1.5 35.9% 53.5% 1.87 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cooks Hill Utd2.0

Valentine1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COOKS HILL UTD · PPG 1.29

VALENTINE · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Cooks Hill Utd (H) 54.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +19.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.6%

Valentine (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cooks Hill Utd face Valentine in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cooks Hill Utd a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Valentine 24%, so Cooks Hill Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cooks Hill Utd and 1.2 for Valentine (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cooks Hill Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.25 for Valentine. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Cooks Hill Utd vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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