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Broadmeadow vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:00

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Weston Bears

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.6%1-17.5%1-26.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.0%3-16.4%3-25.2%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.2%4+-25.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 47.6% 2.10 +8.2%

Draw 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

Away win 27.0% 36.4% 2.75 -15.4%

Over 2.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 50.5% 1.98 -13.7%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 60.6% 61.3% 1.63 -1.2%

Away O1.5 49.7% 50.8% 1.97 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow2.3

Weston Bears1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.14

WESTON BEARS · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.71) strong but model favors Home (P=51.5%)

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +8.2%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.3%

Weston Bears (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow face Weston Bears in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 27%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Broadmeadow and 1.6 for Weston Bears (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.71 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Broadmeadow vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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