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Edgeworth E. vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 10:00

Edgeworth E.

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kahibah

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.8%0-21.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.6%1-15.3%1-23.9%1-31.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.6%3-25.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-111.3%4+-28.3%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 73.5% 1.36 -21.7%

Draw 18.4% 20.0% 5.00 -4.8%

Away win 24.0% 17.2% 5.80 +23.5%

Over 2.5 72.4% 76.9% 1.30 -5.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 59.5% 1.68 -10.6%

BTTS 69.1% 69.4% 1.44 -0.5%

Home O1.5 75.0% 80.0% 1.25 -6.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 37.9% 2.64 +31.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob69.1%

H 58% / xG 2.9-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth E.2.9

Kahibah1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 2.57

KAHIBAH · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth E. (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -21.7%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.8%

Kahibah (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth E. face Kahibah in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth E. a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Kahibah 24%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Edgeworth E. and 1.5 for Kahibah (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth E. are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Edgeworth E. vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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