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Charlestown A. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.5%0-24.5%0-33.8%0-4+4.4%1 1-02.4%1-16.1%1-27.8%1-36.6%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.8%2-35.7%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.2%3-13.1%3-23.9%3-33.3%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.0%4+-22.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 2.90 -13.4%

Draw 20.1% 3.70 -15.4%

Away win 53.2% 2.00 +6.4%

Over 2.5 70.5% 1.44 +1.5%

Over 3.5 48.3% 1.98 -4.4%

BTTS 68.6% 1.40 -4.0%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.92 +1.0%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.63 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.2%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob68.6%

A 53% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.7

Belmont Swansea2.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.00

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.71

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 26.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.4%

Belmont Swansea (A) 53.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Belmont Swansea 53%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Charlestown A. and 2.5 for Belmont Swansea (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Charlestown A. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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