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Edgeworth E. vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:00

Edgeworth E.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adamstown R.

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.1%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.5%1-18.8%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.9%4+-24.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 1.73 -7.4%

Draw 22.1% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 24.3% 3.50 -9.0%

Over 2.5 64.9% 1.44 -6.5%

Over 3.5 42.2% 2.05 -13.5%

BTTS 62.8% 1.44 -9.6%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.49 -9.7%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.27 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.2%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.8%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth E.2.1

Adamstown R.1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 2.50

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth E. (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Adamstown R. (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth E. face Adamstown R. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth E. a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Adamstown R. 24%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Edgeworth E. and 1.3 for Adamstown R. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth E. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Adamstown R..

Edgeworth E. vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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