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Valentine vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.4%0-29.4%0-37.9%0-4+9.0%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.5%2-13.7%2-24.7%2-34.0%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 18.3% 4.40 -11.7%

Draw 21.1% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 60.5% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 1.44 -7.0%

Over 3.5 42.0% 2.00 -16.0%

BTTS 60.2% 1.44 -13.3%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.54 -9.8%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.41 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.2%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob60.2%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 0–2 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.0

Lambton Jaffas2.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.71

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 18.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -11.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Lambton Jaffas (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Lambton Jaffas 61%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Valentine and 2.5 for Lambton Jaffas (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.71 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Valentine vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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