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Belmont Swansea vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:00

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.0%0-23.0%0-33.1%0-4+4.9%1 1-01.3%1-14.0%1-26.0%1-36.1%1-4+9.8%2 2-01.3%2-14.0%2-26.0%2-36.1%2-4+9.7%3 3-00.9%3-12.6%3-24.0%3-34.0%3-4+6.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.1%4+-23.1%4+-33.2%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 26.9% 3.90 +2.9%

Draw 19.1% 3.90 -15.3%

Away win 54.0% 1.67 -9.8%

Over 2.5 77.0% 1.30 +0.1%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.75 -6.9%

BTTS 68.4% 1.33 -9.0%

Win probability 1X2

Belmont Swansea (H) 26.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.9%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.3%

Broadmeadow (A) 54.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 28.1%

Bet Hit 85%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob68.4%

A 54% / xG 2.0-3.0 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.1%

#2 2–3 6.1%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–4 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belmont Swansea2.0

Broadmeadow3.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.75

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.38

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Broadmeadow in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 27% chance, the draw 19% and Broadmeadow 54%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Belmont Swansea and 3.0 for Broadmeadow (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.38 for Broadmeadow. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Belmont Swansea vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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