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Gold C. Utd vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:00

Gold C. Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.8%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.8%1-18.3%1-26.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.7%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.1%4+-24.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 51.3% 1.95 -3.1%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Over 2.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Over 3.5 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

BTTS 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Home O1.5 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Away O1.5 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Utd2.2

Brisbane Roar B1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. UTD · PPG 0.75

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Utd (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

Brisbane Roar B (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Utd face Brisbane Roar B in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Utd a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Brisbane Roar B 28%, so Gold C. Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gold C. Utd and 1.4 for Brisbane Roar B (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.00 for Brisbane Roar B. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Gold C. Utd vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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