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South East Utd vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:30

South East Utd

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.8%0-25.5%0-35.3%0-4+7.8%1 1-01.9%1-15.5%1-27.9%1-37.6%1-4+11.2%2 2-01.4%2-14.0%2-25.7%2-35.5%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.9%3-22.7%3-32.6%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 8.00 +22.6%

Draw 17.2% 5.40 -4.3%

Away win 65.6% 1.25 -18.0%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.25 -9.3%

Over 3.5 47.7% 1.49 -28.9%

BTTS 63.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd (H) 17.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +22.6%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -4.3%

Glenorchy K. (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob63.4%

A 66% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.9%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd1.4

Glenorchy K.2.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.60

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd face Glenorchy K. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd a 17% chance, the draw 17% and Glenorchy K. 66%, so Glenorchy K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for South East Utd and 2.9 for Glenorchy K. (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 1-0.

South East Utd vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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