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Riverside vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.3%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.1%1-14.4%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.4%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-115.3%4+-26.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 66.3% 1.20 -20.4%

Draw 17.5% 5.40 -3.3%

Away win 16.2% 9.60 +33.3%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.28 -15.1%

Over 3.5 47.6% 1.55 -26.2%

BTTS 55.8% 1.62 -9.6%

Home Over 1.5 77.8% 1.18 -8.2%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.34 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.8%

H 66% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside3.3

Ulverstone0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.67

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 66.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -3.3%

Ulverstone (A) 16.2%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face Ulverstone in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Ulverstone 16%, so Riverside are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Riverside and 0.9 for Ulverstone (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Riverside vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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