Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Riverside vs Ulverstone

Riverside vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 1.67 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.3%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.1%1-14.4%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.4%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-115.3%4+-26.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.3% 83.3% 1.20 -20.4%

Draw 17.5% 18.5% 5.40 -3.3%

Away win 16.2% 10.4% 9.60 +33.3%

Over 2.5 66.3% 78.1% 1.28 -15.1%

Over 3.5 47.6% 64.5% 1.55 -26.2%

BTTS 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 29.9% 3.34 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.8%

H 66% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside3.3

Ulverstone0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.67

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 66.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -3.3%

Ulverstone (A) 16.2%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face Ulverstone in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Ulverstone 16%, so Riverside are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Riverside and 0.9 for Ulverstone (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 6-0.

Riverside vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Tasmania NPL Predictions