Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Kingborough L. vs Devonport

Kingborough L. vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 04:30

Kingborough L.

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Devonport

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.0%0-22.8%0-31.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.6%1-16.8%1-26.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.8%3-25.4%3-33.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.6%4+-25.2%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 2.15 +6.2%

Draw 22.3% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 28.3% 2.60 -15.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 48.3% 1.75 -15.5%

BTTS 68.6% 1.33 -8.8%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.62 -1.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.80 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.6%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingborough L.2.3

Devonport1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 2.67

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.67), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Kingborough L. (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Devonport (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingborough L. face Devonport in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingborough L. a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Devonport 28%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Kingborough L. and 1.9 for Devonport (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingborough L. are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.50 for Devonport. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Kingborough L. vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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