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Devonport vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Riverside

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.7%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.7%1-17.0%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.8%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-19.5%4+-25.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 74.1% 1.35 -24.7%

Draw 20.9% 21.7% 4.60 -2.3%

Away win 23.3% 16.1% 6.20 +26.7%

Over 2.5 67.1% 76.9% 1.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 43.9% 60.6% 1.65 -27.6%

BTTS 62.1% 69.4% 1.44 -10.6%

Home O1.5 61.5% 82.0% 1.22 -25.0%

Away O1.5 39.8% 36.2% 2.76 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport2.6

Riverside1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.60

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -24.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.3%

Riverside (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face Riverside in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Riverside 23%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Devonport and 1.2 for Riverside (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Riverside. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Devonport vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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