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Launceston vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 06:45

Launceston

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.4% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.4%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.7%1-12.0%1-21.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.7%2-14.3%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-019.9%4+-123.3%4+-213.6%4+-35.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.1% 90.9% 1.10 -19.6%

Draw 17.2% 12.9% 7.75 +20.0%

Away win 9.7% 7.7% 13.00 +15.7%

Over 2.5 77.4% 89.3% 1.12 -13.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 82.0% 1.22 -35.1%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 35.9% 36.0% 2.78 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -5.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.3%

H 73% / xG 4.4-1.2 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.3%

#3 5–1 6.1%

#4 4–0 5.9%

#5 3–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston4.4

Launceston Utd1.2

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON · PPG 1.71

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.71), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Launceston (H) 73.1%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -19.6%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +20.0%

Launceston Utd (A) 9.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston face Launceston Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston Utd 10%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Launceston and 1.2 for Launceston Utd (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.40 for Launceston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +998.2%.

Launceston vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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