Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Launceston vs South East Utd

Launceston vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 04:30

Launceston logo
Launceston
PPG 1.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
South East Utd logo
South East Utd
PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.7%1-11.0%1-20.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.2%2 2-01.7%2-12.6%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-016.7%4+-125.2%4+-218.9%4+-39.5%4+-4+5.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV
Home win 72.6% 1.07 -22.3%
Draw 17.3% 8.00 +23.0%
Away win 10.0% 16.00 +36.0%
Over 2.5 83.1% 1.17 -2.8%
Over 3.5 72.7% 1.34 -2.6%
BTTS 68.6% 1.70 +16.6%
Home Over 1.5 77.8% 1.07 -16.8%
Away Over 1.5 49.7% 4.33 +115.2%

League track record

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%
O2.5 73%
BTTS 62%
Score Hit 27%
ROI -7.0%
Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)5.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob68.6%

H 73% / xG 5.1-1.5 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.9%
#2 4–1 5.7%
#3 3–1 4.4%
#4 5–2 4.4%
#5 4–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston5.1
South East Utd1.5

COMBINED 6.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON · PPG 1.50

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Launceston (H) 72.6%
ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -22.3%
Draw 17.3%
ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +23.0%
South East Utd (A) 10.0%
ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston face South East Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston a 73% chance, the draw 17% and South East Utd 10%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Launceston and 1.5 for South East Utd (6.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for South East Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +115.2%.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org