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Clarence Zebras vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.1%1-14.4%1-22.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.8%2-17.3%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-115.5%4+-28.3%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 83.3% 1.20 -21.6%

Draw 17.1% 18.5% 5.40 -4.6%

Away win 17.6% 10.6% 9.40 +39.3%

Over 2.5 72.1% 82.0% 1.22 -12.0%

Over 3.5 52.9% 64.9% 1.54 -18.5%

BTTS 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 36.3% 30.5% 3.28 +19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 65% / xG 3.3-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras3.3

Launceston Utd1.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.50

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -21.6%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -4.6%

Launceston Utd (A) 17.6%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face Launceston Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston Utd 18%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Clarence Zebras and 1.1 for Launceston Utd (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Launceston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Clarence Zebras vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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