Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / South Hobart vs Glenorchy K.

South Hobart vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.0%1-13.0%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.6%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.0%4+-118.7%4+-27.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 72.6% 1.15 -16.5%

Draw 17.3% 6.00 +2.3%

Away win 10.0% 12.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 71.8% 1.28 -8.1%

Over 3.5 49.9% 1.65 -17.7%

BTTS 52.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home Over 1.5 77.8% 1.18 -8.2%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 4.20 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 73% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.6%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 5–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart3.8

Glenorchy K.0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 72.6%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +2.3%

Glenorchy K. (A) 10.0%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Glenorchy K. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Glenorchy K. 10%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for South Hobart and 0.8 for Glenorchy K. (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.0%.

South Hobart vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Tasmania NPL Predictions