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South Hobart vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.0%1-13.0%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.6%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.0%4+-118.7%4+-27.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.6% 87.0% 1.15 -16.5%

Draw 17.3% 16.7% 6.00 +2.3%

Away win 10.0% 8.3% 12.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 71.8% 78.1% 1.28 -8.1%

Over 3.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 23.8% 4.20 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 73% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.6%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 5–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart3.8

Glenorchy K.0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 72.6%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +2.3%

Glenorchy K. (A) 10.0%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Glenorchy K. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Glenorchy K. 10%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for South Hobart and 0.8 for Glenorchy K. (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 6-1.

South Hobart vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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