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Kingborough L. vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 03:15

Kingborough L.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

South Hobart

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.7%0-24.0%0-32.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.3%1-17.1%1-27.6%1-35.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.6%3-33.3%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.2%4+-23.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 3.20 +22.2%

Draw 21.2% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 40.6% 1.80 -26.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.25 -9.3%

Over 3.5 48.1% 1.65 -20.6%

BTTS 68.4% 1.30 -11.1%

Win probability 1X2

Kingborough L. (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +22.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

South Hobart (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.4%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.1%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingborough L.1.9

South Hobart2.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 3.00

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.67)

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingborough L. face South Hobart in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingborough L. a 38% chance, the draw 21% and South Hobart 41%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kingborough L. and 2.1 for South Hobart (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingborough L. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.67 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Kingborough L. vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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