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Ulverstone vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingborough L.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.5%0-21.6%0-33.4%0-4+42.0%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.2%1-32.5%1-4+31.3%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.4%2-30.9%2-4+11.7%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.6% 2.2% 46.00 +232.6%

Draw 8.5% 10.6% 9.40 -12.1%

Away win 80.9% 99.0% 1.01 -18.3%

Over 2.5 81.7% 92.6% 1.08 -11.8%

Over 3.5 70.9% 82.0% 1.22 -13.5%

BTTS 55.6% 27.3% 3.66 +103.5%

Home O1.5 33.7% 8.9% 11.25 +279.1%

Away O1.5 100.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -5.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)6.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 81% / xG 0.7-6.5 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 7.0%

#2 0–4 5.4%

#3 1–5 5.2%

#4 1–4 4.0%

#5 0–3 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone0.7

Kingborough L.6.5

COMBINED 7.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.17

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 10.6%

ODDS 46.00 · IMPLIED 2.2% EV +232.6%

Draw 8.5%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -12.1%

Kingborough L. (A) 80.9%

ODDS 1.01 · IMPLIED 99.0% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face Kingborough L. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 11% chance, the draw 9% and Kingborough L. 81%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ulverstone and 6.5 for Kingborough L. (7.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Kingborough L.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +279.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Ulverstone vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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