Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Glenorchy K. vs Clarence Zebras

Glenorchy K. vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 06:45

Glenorchy K.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.6%0-26.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.1%1-110.6%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.2%2-17.4%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 42.9% 2.33 -23.8%

Draw 24.1% 26.0% 3.85 -4.3%

Away win 43.1% 42.9% 2.33 +0.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 57.8% 1.73 -31.1%

BTTS 62.1% 76.9% 1.30 -19.3%

Home O1.5 43.0% 62.9% 1.59 -31.6%

Away O1.5 49.8% 60.6% 1.65 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -5.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.1%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy K.1.4

Clarence Zebras1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 1.40

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy K. (H) 32.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -23.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.3%

Clarence Zebras (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy K. face Clarence Zebras in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy K. a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Clarence Zebras 43%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Glenorchy K. and 1.7 for Clarence Zebras (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy K. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.67 for Clarence Zebras. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Glenorchy K. vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Tasmania NPL Predictions