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Riverside vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.2%0-24.1%0-33.4%0-4+4.0%1 1-02.3%1-15.9%1-27.5%1-36.3%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.7%3 3-01.3%3-13.3%3-24.2%3-33.5%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-22.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 4.20 +26.4%

Draw 21.1% 4.10 -8.1%

Away win 48.9% 1.57 -23.2%

Over 2.5 67.6% 1.30 -12.1%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.65 -21.6%

BTTS 68.1% 1.33 -9.4%

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 30.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.1%

Launceston (A) 48.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob68.1%

A 49% / xG 1.8-2.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside1.8

Launceston2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.67

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.40

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face Launceston in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Launceston 49%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Riverside and 2.5 for Launceston (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.40 for Launceston. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Riverside vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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