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Launceston Utd vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:30

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.0%0-22.8%0-31.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-03.6%1-16.8%1-26.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.7%3-25.4%3-33.4%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.5%4+-25.1%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 2.10 -7.6%

Draw 21.3% 3.90 -10.2%

Away win 34.7% 2.55 -11.5%

Over 2.5 68.9% 1.25 -13.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.60 -24.0%

BTTS 68.1% 1.29 -12.2%

Win probability 1X2

Launceston Utd (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -7.6%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Ulverstone (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.1%

H 44% / xG 2.3-1.9 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston Utd2.3

Ulverstone1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.00

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston Utd face Ulverstone in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston Utd a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Ulverstone 35%, so Launceston Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Launceston Utd and 1.9 for Ulverstone (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston Utd are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Launceston Utd vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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