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Devonport vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.9%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.7%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-18.2%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 1.28 -20.0%

Draw 20.1% 5.40 +5.1%

Away win 17.5% 6.60 +9.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.25 -20.0%

Over 3.5 40.3% 1.55 -37.5%

BTTS 55.9% 1.40 -21.7%

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -20.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +5.1%

Clarence Zebras (A) 17.5%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport2.4

Clarence Zebras0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 3.00

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face Clarence Zebras in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Clarence Zebras 18%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Devonport and 0.9 for Clarence Zebras (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Clarence Zebras. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Devonport vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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