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Ferencvaros vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 16:45

Ferencvaros

PPG 1.54 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Puskas A.

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.0%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 72.5% 1.38 -20.0%

Draw 22.8% 23.3% 4.30 -2.0%

Away win 19.2% 13.2% 7.60 +45.9%

Over 2.5 52.0% 63.7% 1.57 -18.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 41.7% 2.40 -28.5%

BTTS 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 10.8%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferencvaros1.8

Puskas A.0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FERENCVAROS · PPG 1.54

PUSKAS A. · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.54), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Ferencvaros (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -20.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -2.0%

Puskas A. (A) 19.2%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +45.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferencvaros face Puskas A. in Hungary - NB I on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferencvaros a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Puskas A. 19%, so Ferencvaros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ferencvaros and 0.9 for Puskas A. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferencvaros are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.71 for Puskas A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Ferencvaros vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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