Today / Hungary - NB I / Debrecen vs Ujpest

Debrecen vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:15

Debrecen

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ujpest

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.0%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.7%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 57.8% 1.73 -12.1%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 24.5% 24.4% 4.10 +0.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 62.5% 1.60 -5.4%

Over 3.5 36.0% 40.0% 2.50 -10.0%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Debrecen1.8

Ujpest1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEBRECEN · PPG 1.47

UJPEST · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Debrecen (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -12.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Ujpest (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Debrecen face Ujpest in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Debrecen a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Ujpest 25%, so Debrecen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Debrecen and 1.3 for Ujpest (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Debrecen are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.20 for Ujpest. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Debrecen vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB I Predictions