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Kozarmisleny vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Kozarmisleny

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Karcag SE

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.6%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-112.9%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Draw 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

Away win 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 18.9% 31.3% 3.20 -23.7%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kozarmisleny1.3

Karcag SE0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOZARMISLENY · PPG 1.64

KARCAG SE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Kozarmisleny (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Karcag SE (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kozarmisleny face Karcag SE in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kozarmisleny a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Karcag SE 25%, so Kozarmisleny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kozarmisleny and 0.9 for Karcag SE (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kozarmisleny are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.93 for Karcag SE. This match finished 2-1.

Kozarmisleny vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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