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Vasas vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:30

Vasas

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ajka

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-15.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-19.8%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-15.5%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 82.0% 1.22 -31.6%

Draw 24.9% 19.0% 5.25 +18.4%

Away win 19.0% 11.1% 9.00 +42.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

Over 3.5 23.2% 37.0% 2.70 -22.4%

BTTS 48.6% 40.0% 2.50 +21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasas1.8

Ajka0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VASAS · PPG 2.21

AJKA · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

74%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Vasas (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -31.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +18.4%

Ajka (A) 19.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +42.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasas face Ajka in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasas a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Ajka 19%, so Vasas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vasas and 0.6 for Ajka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasas are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.21 for Ajka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Vasas vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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