Today / Hungary - NB I / Kisvarda vs Gyor

Kisvarda vs Gyor Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:15

Kisvarda

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gyor

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.6%0-29.9%0-36.1%0-4+4.4%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.9%2-15.3%2-25.0%2-33.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 10.2% 9.80 +75.8%

Draw 24.0% 22.5% 4.45 +4.1%

Away win 52.9% 76.3% 1.31 -30.7%

Over 2.5 57.5% 63.7% 1.57 -9.7%

Over 3.5 32.4% 42.6% 2.35 -23.9%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.0%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvarda1.0

Gyor1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVARDA · PPG 1.56

GYOR · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

62%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.56) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kisvarda (H) 23.1%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV +75.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +4.1%

Gyor (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvarda face Gyor in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvarda a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Gyor 53%, so Gyor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kisvarda and 1.9 for Gyor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvarda are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.00 for Gyor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +75.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Kisvarda vs Gyor Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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