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Ferencvaros vs Zalaegerszegi Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:15

Ferencvaros

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zalaegerszegi

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.1%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-110.9%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 78.1% 1.28 -34.2%

Draw 24.4% 20.4% 4.90 +11.7%

Away win 24.2% 10.5% 9.50 +77.9%

Over 2.5 58.9% 66.7% 1.50 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferencvaros1.8

Zalaegerszegi1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FERENCVAROS · PPG 1.73

ZALAEGERSZEGI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Ferencvaros (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -34.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +11.7%

Zalaegerszegi (A) 24.2%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +77.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferencvaros face Zalaegerszegi in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferencvaros a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Zalaegerszegi 24%, so Ferencvaros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ferencvaros and 1.1 for Zalaegerszegi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferencvaros are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.33 for Zalaegerszegi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +77.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Ferencvaros vs Zalaegerszegi Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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