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DVTK vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:15

DVTK

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paks

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.3%0-28.0%0-35.1%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.3%1-110.1%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 17.9% 5.60 +36.1%

Draw 25.1% 23.0% 4.35 +5.5%

Away win 46.3% 68.5% 1.46 -32.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 38.4% 52.4% 1.91 -26.7%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 1–3✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DVTK1.2

Paks1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DVTK · PPG 1.07

PAKS · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.07) vs Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

DVTK (H) 28.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +36.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +5.5%

Paks (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

DVTK face Paks in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DVTK a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Paks 46%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for DVTK and 1.9 for Paks (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DVTK are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.38 for Paks. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.1%. This match finished 1-3.

DVTK vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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